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Table 3 Expected probability for sharing one/two allele(s) between two unrelated individuals for the Powerplex 16 kit in the state of Mexico database (N = 2000)

From: Analysis of fortuitous matches in a STR genotype database from Mexico and its forensic efficiency parameters

STR loci p (matching)
TH01 0.71892
PENTA E 0.32048
D21S11 0.53897
D18S51 0.41570
FGA 0.41145
PENTA D 0.53029
D8S1179 0.60275
CSF1PO 0.70407
D7S820 0.62973
D16S539 0.64500
D13S317 0.52484
D5S818 0.73017
VWA 0.68664
TPOX 0.77201
D3S1358 0.77629
Total probability
(Expected)
0.00030617 / 2000b = 1.153081 × 1017
(1 in 6,532,422 random comparisons)
Probability
(Observed)
0.000004977
(9 in 2001,000a)
  1. aAll possible pairwise comparisons among DNA profiles in our database (N = 2000)
  2. bBonfferroni correction according to the sample size